El Nino Causes Trillions of Dollars in Losses to the Global Economy

Researchers at Dartmouth College reported in Science that El Nino is expected to reappear this year and will cause trillions of dollars in economic losses worldwide. The study is one of the first to assess El Nino's long-term losses, and its projected losses are much higher than those estimated by previous studies.

El Nino has a profound impact on climate change, causing devastating floods and droughts, killing crops, decreasing fish stocks and increasing tropical diseases.

The researchers spent two years studying the global economy in the decades following the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Nio events and found that in the five years after each event, the global economy lost $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion, respectively, much of which was borne by poor tropical countries.

Because climate change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of El Nino events, the researchers predict that even if the world's pledges to reduce carbon emissions are realized, the global economic losses in the 21st century will reach $84 trillion.

Lead author Christopher Callahan, a doctoral student in geography at Dartmouth College, said the study settles a debate over how quickly societies can recover from major climate events such as El Nino. He added that the study's data suggest that a post-El Nino recession could last 14 years or more.

Senior author Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College, said the findings highlight a key but understudied factor that affects economic losses: year-to-year changes in climate conditions. El Nino has been described as the "tree trunk of climate change," altering weather around the world and affecting national economies.

When it comes to climate change, world leaders and the public are rightly concerned about the continued rise in global average temperatures. "But if you don't take El Nio into account when estimating the cost of global warming, then you greatly underestimate the cost of global warming." "The cost of El Nino is extremely high," Mankin stressed. "Our estimates are orders of magnitude larger than previous estimates."

The researchers found that events in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 contributed to a decline in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) of about 3 percent in 1988 and 2003. In 2003, the GDP of tropical coastal countries such as Peru and Indonesia fell by more than 10%.

"We need both climate change mitigation and more investment in El Nio prediction and adaptation, as these events will only amplify the costs of global warming." "Mankin said.

According to Callahan, El Nino in 2023 is expected to occur at a time when sea surface temperatures are at their highest level on record. The last major El Nino occurred in 2016, making that year the hottest on record. In the seven years since, global warming has intensified. In addition, the world is experiencing an ongoing El Nino. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects that there is a greater than 80 percent chance of El Nino developing by late summer.

"Our findings suggest that economic growth in tropical countries could be severely affected over the next decade, resulting in trillions of dollars in lost global productivity compared to countries without El Nino." "Callahan said. (Source: Li Huiyu, Chinese Journal of Science)